Night view Asia / Europe USD on a strong start, but fell in the European session The level of support and resistance remained as expected, English and German data added pressure of the day’s events All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 9:00 a.m. USD S & P / CS Composite-20 HPI y / y 10:00 a.m. USD CB Consumer Confidence 10:00 a.m.
USD Richmond Manufacturing Index By Wednesday All times EASTERN (-5 GMT) 10:30 am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2:15 pm USD FOMC Statement 2:15 pm USD interest rates Also WEF – Annual session of the dollar remained on the defensive this morning, while losing ground. Despite a strong start, the greenback continued to lose ground, as noted on Monday, at the start of the European session gains made by the USD vanished. Against the GBP, the American currency is remained at the 1.3900 in Tokyo, and recorded in the 1.3928 minimum. The pair maintained their level of S / R against the GBP and improved towards the European session, the British data, namely the UK CBI, exceeded expectations, and next to the German IFO after publication, self improvement and reached the area of 1.4100. Some central banks bought euros, which continued to advance against Cable. The cable reached highs in the 1.4245, the volume of transactions was low in Asia as the Chinese new year, but improved in the European session.
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Night view Asia / Europe The greenback was under pressure at the beginning of the session in Asia significant economic agents seeking EUROS Volumes improved compared to last week's events today times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 11:30 am, the FOMC Member Fisher to Speak There is wide variety of events for today. What is waiting for Tuesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 10:00 am, Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, testifying 10:00 am USD HPI meters / m 10:00 am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index The USD fell at the beginning of the trading session in New York during the morning, while most traders await more details on the bailout of the financial system of the United States, the confidence in the greenback has fallen significantly following the deterioration of the sector American Financial, and will have to analyze the effect of rescue envisaged. Several operations restricted stock markets in short, to limit speculation and a deepening financial crisis. Crude oil rebounded, registering over $ 106.00/por barrel. The JPY is the currency again with more weight in the market, and rallied against most currencies, the USD / YEN minimum recorded in the 105.94 area before reaching the zone of 106.40.
Several orders were placed in the 107.00/10 area mainly by exporters. The CABLE recovered next to the EURO, and recorded peaks in the area of 1.8478. The Euro area recorded highs of 1.4627, and there were stops over 1.4600. Rumors of the European Central Bank officials, with respect to interest rates, with respect to the short term, are giving some support to the EURO.
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The stops are being placed in the preset range with respect to most currencies, and number of operators who were short of the USD eventually profits. The book fell of the top night in the traded at 1.4232 to the 1.4080 area, while the pair EUR / GBP was around 0.9200. The Euro area recorded highs of 1.3072, however, the pair then fell to the area of 1.2980 to the close. It is understood that those who were long took profits recently. The estimated level of support in the 1.2880 area and stops are being placed on 1.3030, so that total volatility. If the pair fell several analysts see a buying opportunity. USD / JPY in the area recorded maximum of 95.66, but later was around 98.00 for a short period, despite a firmer dollar.
The pair ended the day in the area of 98.20, however, it is estimated that if the stock market fell, the USD / JPY will be under great pressure in the short term. The performance of exporters Nipponese undoubtedly has an influence on the pair slightly. In my view, the assumed strength against the dollar begins to recede. With the sudden improvement in global stock markets, and with some apparent progress with respect to the treatment of other economic issues, several operators will be decided by selling dollars. Double Action is awaited for the next 24 hours, but with a tune bearish for the greenback. GBP / USD Resistance 3: 1.4350 Resistance 2: 1.4320 Resistance 1: 1.4250 New York: 1.4053 Support 1: 1.3860 Support 2: 1.3780 Support 3: 1.3720 CFDs The pair maintained the maximum earnings taken and recorded at night, the stops are being installed in 1.4050.
It tested the level of support. The stops are placed at established ranges. A long-term resistance level is estimated at 1.5000, but the stops are placed above that level. It follows a two-way trade, so it is estimated that more operators are putting short positions. Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 5:30 a.m. GBP DCLG HPI y / y 4:10 pm BCI King talk EURO GBP / USD Resistance 3: 1.3100 Resistance 2: 1.3080 Resistance 1: 1.3050 New York: 1.2985 Support 1: 1.2850 Support 2 : 1.2720 Support 3: 1.2680 Comments The pair continued to pound two-way, maintaining the level of support on 1.2880. The upper stops in the 1.2950 fired. Several operators in the area bought weight of 1.3000. Aggressive traders can settle in the area of 1.3000. It looks a trade two-way with great volatility. Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 6:00 a.m. EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 6:00 a.m. EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 3:15 pm EUR ECB’s Trichet will speak Join us for the Afternoon U.S.
The Euro also came under pressure when unfavorable news was announced. the German GDP revised down, and several traders sold euros. The Euro area recorded highs of 1.2831, and the lowest in the area of 1.2663 at the end of European trading session, both pairs, the EUR, and GBP, were within established ranges, so that understand that yesterday’s gains will not continue to the end of the week. USD / JPY also came under pressure, several exporters sold the pair in the 98.00 area, the maximum recorded JPY in the area of 98.10 after yesterday’s gains. The pair recorded in New York minimum area of 96.25 in the morning. On the other hand, the USD / CHF remained strong, with peaks not captured two years ago in the evening session, recorded maximum in the area of 1.1919, 1.1839 and minimum in what was a quiet session, compared with the other pairs. The stock market will be in the spotlight this morning, the DJIA is maintained with some downward trend. In my view, the USD will remain a safe haven because of fears over the global financial crisis, the issue of liquidity is still the central issue, and once this happens, Americans will produce the basic data a drop in the greenback.
The G-20 meeting scheduled for the weekend, you might add a pick to the majors next week. It is expected volatility before the publication of the events scheduled. This alert. The pair was on the rise, and then reverse the trend.
The euro broke the resistance level specified in 1.4298 yesterday, but not successfully achieved the objective pursued and recorded highs in the 1.4365, just a few pips below the target of 1.4371. In the hourly chart clearly shows a downward channel. The European currency then remained in the area of 1.43. The present area of the 1.4238 support level and if it breaks that area could test the level of 1.4153 and 1.4030. However, short-term resistance level is at the 1.4371 area, and only if it breaks that could test the 1.4502 area and beyond the 1.4596. Minimum of downstream channel.
Resistance: 1.4371 a Maximum on Monday. 38.2% Fibonacci level. Dollar Pound Sterling stopped yesterday on the level of resistance of 1.5993, and reached the lowest in 1.5991. Looking at the graph below, a clear downstream channel and the pound breaking it finally ended. That is why now it is estimated that the pound would continue to rise. The zone of the 1.5946 support level present a significant short-term for today. And if it breaks that area could test the 1.5852 level and perhaps achieve the 1.5768.
However, short-term resistance level is at the 1.6029 area, and only if it breaks that area could test the 1.6097 and 1.6190. Dollar Yen The dollar-yen trying several times, failed to break the 91.78 area. For them there is no change in fundamentals. Yesterday it reached the level of 91.30. As said Friday it would be advisable to take positions after the break happens to some specific address. The support area is located in 91.06, and if the pair falls below that area could test the 90.03 and 89.55. The resistance level is at 91.78 and if the pair breaks this area will continue an upward correction and could test the 92.52 first and then 93.53. Support: a 91.06: Support intra-day, SMA 100. Area of prior resistance. a 93.53: Minimum of 19 March.
The JPY was the most volatile currency, the USD / JPY minimum recorded in the area of 105.02, following the publication of GDP during the morning, but later recovered reaching 106.20, managed to stay in the area of 106.00, and is expected to pass more volatility in coming days. The GBP and EURO, both were under some pressure given the lows during the week. The Swissy reached the 1.0900 area, but the loonie minimum recorded at the end of the day, apparently the USD will remain under pressure until more information is taken with respect to the financial rescue plan. In my view, we observe the same behavior in the market until it is realized the bailout – in one way or another. The discussion focuses on the final details of how the rescue bill, and will soon be subject to a vote to be late to practice. Apparently, on Monday, is estimated to reach consensus, but in my opinion, it is not easy to achieve that consensus.
It is estimated that the USD will start lower on Monday, and the stock market will remain under pressure. Comments The couple was under some pressure, had ended unchanged to slightly higher, double action was observed overnight. It is estimated that the pair will continue to rise while the data do not favor. The stock market was low because it is not yet concrete economic rescue plan, which ended up pushing the greenback.
The Moving Averages in Forex technical analysis, widely used in the stock market to predict the evolution of prices, is also used in the Forex. This analysis is also called chartists because it is based on the charts and analysis of indicators applied to the patterns that prices are formed allows for a wide range of elements of analysis, which we will be detailing in this blog in all the markets buying pressure or selling, is automatically transmitted to prices, and therefore they are constantly subjected to strong variations. These variations are very intense when generating a status of “volatility” of value. A value with a high level of volatility, are abrupt changes in prices, which moved to a chart, you will have large peaks and valleys, that is, introduce the so-called graphic sawtooth. These movements can get to hide the true trend of value, and that will be solved by determining the average mobile. Moving averages are the indicator used in charting.
It is an arithmetic mean that “softens” the price curve becomes a line or curve of the trend, allowing analyzing the start and end. It does not provide trend changes but if you can confirm. 2) simple moving average is a simple average but has the peculiarity that each day that passes, it eliminates the first day of the series in the calculation and added the last day. For the purposes of analysis presents the deficiency that only takes into account the period over which it computes and attaches equal importance to the first day of the series to last.